One practitioner (I10) noted that the results are often an iterative product change, based on what the company already makes. Participants mentioned that foresight contributed to the organization by challenging existing assumptions (I03). We developed the first research question to facilitate the exploration of the methods used by the practitioners at for-profit corporations in America. As previously noted, since forward-focused planning assumes past trends have changed, research methods depending on prior trends continuing uninterrupted are viewed with suspicion. One practitioner mentioned that foresight activities could bring the firm the advantage of being aware of a new opportunity before their competitors. Nonetheless, discussions of complexity, chaos, and uncertainty are familiar to companies experiencing marketplace upheaval [38]. Manage cookies/Do not sell my data we use in the preference centre. The innovation may take the form of finding new markets (including segments and countries), new products, or a pipeline of R&D projects. Eleven were direct employees of the corporation and three were outside consultants hired by corporations with expertise in foresight to lead or participate in foresight projects. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2011.01.006, Calof J, Miller R, Jackson M (2012) Towards impactful foresight: viewpoints from foresight consultants and academics. Several participants remarked that foresight efforts were so new to the corporation that these corporations had not discarded any yet. However, knowledge about corporate foresight practices and outcomes is limited. Scanning activities most often focused on picking up the early indicators of change (Weak Signals), developing general trends (e.g., mobile computing), and trends rated to company-specific topics (e.g., consumer wellness). Foresight practitioners produced reports in the form of recommendations to management, a project brief, a consultants report, a consumer trends assessment, or an R&D roadmap to guide internal research projects. As documented in Table1, 11 of the 14 practitioners interviewed were employees of the corporation and had a direct interest in the company doing well operationally and financially. Corporate managers should learn to plan for the long term, accept the idea that foresight pays-off, consider both the costs and returns from foresight, consider whether to shape the future or let the future shape their businesses, and dedicate enough resources for long-term plans. While these forces may or may not be part of the present marketplace, the realization is that these forces can influence the future viability of the firm [7]. doi:10.1108/00251740810846725, Clemens R (2009) Environmental scanning and scenario planning: a 12 month perspective on applying the viable systems model to developing public sector foresight. These documents, publications, presentations, and posters were occasionally used with internal groups to provide input for departmental planning, strategy groups, and management discussions. In general, foresight practitioners saw no downside to foresight activities in a corporate setting. The company introduced new products, product variations, and standardized packaging (I13). While both factors look at the impact of social, technological, economic, ecological, and political (or legal) forces on business, the VSTEEP approach includes the additional factor of values. doi:10.1108/09564230810875020, Yin RK (2009) Case study research: design and methods, 4th edn. Practitioners and project participants arrive at a shared vision of one or more preferred future states based on previously identified signals of change and major trends, as well as the ways the company might operate in that state. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2008.12.004, Article Hammoud, M.S., Nash, D.P. The main characteristics of the foresight activities were long-range planning, early warning systems for management, inputs for innovation, and decreased reaction time dealing with environmental change. This phase is described as the suspension of debate so project participants could extrapolate what the future changes might mean for the company.
Market segmentation also relied on purely historical data to project trends. Depending on the department, the focus of the foresight activity could relate to strategy, new product development, new markets, or a large customers needs. This example underscores the fact that a lack of cultural and managerial receptivity towards foresight can have outcomes that are not easy to predict. Rather, foresight is useful in managerial planning where the pace of change makes past data an unreliable basis for future action. The top five corporate results practitioners mentioned were (a) ideation, (b) new products or services, (c) managerial planning, (d) marketing, and (e) customers. 2022 BioMed Central Ltd unless otherwise stated. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40309-014-0042-9, http://ec.europa.eu/research/foresight/10/article_3962_en.htm, http://www.foresight-network.eu/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=19&Itemid=58, http://www.shell.com/global/future-energy/scenarios/2050.html. Participants mentioned that foresight contributes to the organization challenging existing assumptions, gain early insights into upcoming and large-impact changes, and gain a positive perspective of change opportunities. The main findings here indicated that the purpose determine the foresight method to use, foresight methods influence the outcomes of foresight, foresight outcomes become the bases for outputs, and outputs (larger activities and managerial actions) determine the benefits received by the corporation.
Effective decision-making in business requires assessing the potential impact of market and non-market forces on the marketplace. The primary unit of analysis for this study was the corporation, although the interviews were conducted with employees or consultants employed by the corporation. The current business environment often challenges managerial decision- making due to the rapid pace of change, new technologies, changing competition, and the growth of data in general. Four participants described a formal, structured process they use for foresight projects.
Foresight is not a new science but because of the advantages it creates to for-profit organizations, it is a hidden science. In cases where numerous themes of change were identified, another practitioner (I03) described clustering related themes in order to identify major trends.
J Mark Theory Pract 14:315322. A few interview participants talked about looking for the white spaces where the company had no current offering. Such assumptions do not accommodate the chaos, uncertainty, and disequilibrium that develop during periods of rapid change [42]. Foresight. Only four respondents related specific steps in addition to the methods used. Specifically, one-quarter of the corporate planners surveyed had used foresight for up to 3years, half of the corporate planners had used foresight approximately 10years, and eight percent of the planners used foresight for more than 30years. Tables5, 6, and 7 include ways corporations use the outputs of foresight. Three of the four participants (I04, I06, I11) who reported a formal or standardized process were able to describe the outcomes of the process and how corporations used these outcomes. Dr. Wheelwright has contributed to the list of resources as well as contacts for the interviewees. Other corporate leaders began to recognize the need for planning beyond the scope of traditional forecasting methods. The responses of the interviewed practitioners form the basis for the qualitative research into the methods and outcomes that these practitioners viewed as successful. For this reason, foresight practitioners require managerial support to counteract cultural resistance and allow practitioners to learn through the execution of foresight introduced change. Practitioners coften used outside firms to conduct research, lead foresight projects, or provide expertise for the project. Openness to the massive amount of information, the variable timelines, the relevant belief values, and awareness of risks that influence each component of a corporations industry, enable organizations to capitalize on opportunities and prepare for threats. The wide use of outside foresight expertise may represent the overall lack of training or lack of experience among Western for-profit corporations. Participants acknowledged the importance of innovation as a division/departments tactical purpose for foresight, availing the potential for research and development (R&D) projects. Once we contacted these practitioners by email or LinkedIn message, 34 responded to the initial inquiry about participating in the research. http://www.foresight-network.eu/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=19&Itemid=58. This fact coupled with the lack of a standard nomenclature related to foresight may explain the mixture of results when asking about foresight methods used and the lack of a systematic process commonly used in foresight projects. Practitioners commented about new products and noted that foresight projects were used to build a business case in order to justify expenditures needed to launch new offerings (I09), identify products likely to do well across multiple scenarios (I10), and contributed to products already in production (I07, I10). Foresight practitioners revealed specific actions taken by corporations in response to foresight outcomes. While many participants reported no change in the methods used due to the newness of foresight to the organization, a few reported some methods were no longer in use. Practitioners can influence the culture by creating solid relationships with senior leaders and business unit managers. One interviewee (I06) described this phase as the suspension of debate so project participants could extrapolate what the future changes might mean for the company. Generally, innovation and competitive edge were considered both strategic (i.e., enterprise-wide) and tactical (i.e., departmental) motivation for and benefits of foresight practice. Documents can include a description of important trends, themes, mega-trends, or scenarios. All of the four practitioners who described a structured process began by identifying the specific concern or question that was relevant to the industry or department involved in the foresight activity. Table2 includes the top methodologies reported by the practitioners. Senior leaders can assign resources to the foresight project and, at the end of the project, delegate portions of the results for further action.
Some practitioners reported no longer using these methods, which rely only on historical information, because consumers rarely know what they will want; they only know what they want at present. R&D Manag 40:169180. Early in the 2000s the foresight unit recognized a new technology and a start-up company that might challenge the primary products of a business unit. Practitioner comments explained how companies used foresight processes to make sense out of the complex and often-chaotic fields that are relevant to each firm, its specific industry, and departmental needs or concerns. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 79:819831. Practitioners also used foresight product outputs in conferences, publications, with suppliers, and as influences for deciding company acquisitions. The tables represent only the theoretical constructs that were identified during the data coding within the discourse with the corporate foresight practitioners. There are no static markets or customers, and the firm needs to look for what is next. Internal consumer research was focused on a short-time horizon (i.e., less than 2years) and a different research area needed to work on a timeline (i.e., up to 4years). The specific approach of future-focused Market Segmentation is problematic since practitioners of this method rely on historic data (I10). The additional foresight methods used included environmental scanning, foresight workshops, weak signals, forecasts, consumer values, and the STEEP factors.
If the practitioner stays informed, he/she can understand what is working, and what needs improvement for future projects. A few interview participants discussed looking for the white spaces or opportunity identification where the company had no current offering today.
These include outputs derived from foresight projects, outcomes corporations derive from foresight activities, management actions because of foresight activities, and advantages obtained through foresight. The interview responses from the foresight practitioners did not directly mention specific theories. http://ec.europa.eu/research/foresight/10/article_3962_en.htm. Vanderbilt Law Rev 55:155, Battistella C, De Toni AF (2011) A methodology of technological foresight: a proposal and field study. The accuracy of forecasting methods is not related to the reliability of foresight or systems thinking [22]. Interviewees claimed that their companies eliminated this format because of the recent recession. Compet Intell Mag 2:3740, Fleisher CS, Wright S (2010) Competitive intelligence analysis failure: diagnosing individual level causes and implementing organisational level remedies. In cases where numerous themes of change are identified, clustering of related themes should be performed in order to identify major trends. While most managers were not openly negative about the foresight projects, unless asked to provide resources for a project, there were few high-level sponsors to support foresight efforts. Decision-makers use these long-range scenarios to provide a comprehensive analysis of alternatives associated with the ongoing evolution of the energy industry (i.e., oil, gas, and renewable energy sources). Of the 14 participants, only five had some level of formal training ranging from attending foresight conferences, a certificate course, and a university degree in foresight. In most areas of business, highly accurate, long-range forecasting is not possible because the level of uncertainty over time is greater than the knowledge available to managers [23]. Upper management was so impressed by the project results that these became part of a presentation to the heads of all the global business units (I06). Adjust the message to the audience by deemphasizing theory and focusing on the results. Table7 includes the ways interviewees perceived the foresight activities as benefitting or advancing the corporations.
Some companies work on internal publications, which they later distribute to customers and key suppliers after removing some proprietary content. However, the necessary insights tended to be disconnected because they are localized within various parts of the organization. To address the first research question, we developed multiple interview questions. A need exists for future research to develop a common language and vocabulary to describe foresight methods, tools, and concepts. Foresight is not intended to replace forecasting based on past data. The main objective in this step is to identify the specific concern or question that was relevant to the company or department involved in the foresight activity. J Futur Stud Strat Think Policy 11:5767. Herein, the far-from-equilibrium dynamics revealed the complex interaction of agents [37]. doi:10.1007/s11213-009-9127-y, Cunha MP, Chia R (2007) Using teams to avoid peripheral blindness. Dr. Verne Wheelwright is an internationally recognized professional in the field of foresight and futures studies. The first documented use emerged during World War II then later in corporations in the 1960s [44]. Table 13 includes the comments from the 14 interviewees. Interview data were coded and synthesized for thematic report of common and unique responses; this documented practices used in and outcomes derived from corporate foresight. While these data are accurate, authorities in business competitive analysis caution that the past is an unreliable predictor of the future [15]. Staff members at Shell International actively promote energy scenarios to 2050, which the company makes available online to consumers, partners, and competitors [34]. The interviewed practitioners reported that the corporation they represented took the following actions, as a direct result of foresight projects: Upper management assigned several key opportunity areas to manager/champions for further development and implementation (I11). I11s advice was to emphasize the outputs of the process and hide the machinery. This practitioner was equating past success presenting the foresight project message with removing the foresight-specific language related to theoretical constructs, futures concepts, and process titles. The purpose of this qualitative research was to identify foresight methods that foresight practitioners use and to describe the results attainted by for-profit corporations. Interview participants routinely interchanged similar constructs using different terms.
Google Scholar, Bainbridge SM (2002) Why a board? Long Range Plan 40:559573. Even in for-profit corporations, the methods and practices used in one industry may be ineffective in another. Corporate management often needs hard data in order to invest hard dollars in forward-looking activities. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9310.2010.00601.x, Samli AC (2006) Surviving in chaotic modern markets: Strategic considerations in turbulent times. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2012.09.011, Miller KD (2002) Knowledge inventories and managerial myopia. Some outside firms mentioned were research companies like Gartner, Forrester, and Frost & Sullivan. R&D Manag 1:3139. Since the participants were able to identify methods used and abandoned, we asked them to provide further detail about the methods and processes used. Regardless whether respondents perceived white spaces as opportunities or threats, they claimed white spaces require the attention of the company wishing to establish or retain industry positioning. This practitioner found previous foresight work, dating back over 5years, which had addressed the same areas of concern. Syst Pract Action Res 22:249274. The value of this recommendation lies in the fact that many corporate decisions are based on a ROI calculation by managers to justify the expense of an activity by projecting the value of the reward for that activity. On the other hand, some practitioners complained that their reports and recommendations from foresight activities seemed to go into a black-hole. The foresight practitioners reported relatively few successful foresight methods used in corporations; among these are: scenario planning, trend analysis, environmental scanning, workshops, and looking for weak signals. This change in perception could create a competitive advantage for the firm. In one company, upper management was so impressed by the foresight activities and project results that these results became part of a presentation to the heads of all the global business units. Practitioners should present trends or scenarios in a manner that makes the future tangible by visuals including models, pictures, or videos in order to bring employees on board faster. In some cases, the intentions of the foresight practitioners focus mainly on discovering white spaces, products, or services outside the existing portfolio [31]. In some cases, the results are often an iterative product change based on what the company already makes.
importance of foresight in business
