If the 102 mph velocity with which Crochet burst onto the scene in 2020 is gone forever and who this side of Aroldis Chapman has really ever held onto it for more than a flash? That would be the Angels' most wins since they last made the playoffs in 2014. This one is pretty simple. But while his .520 slugging in 2021 was a career-best by almost 50 points, the system thinks theres a good chance that level of power was legit, forecasting another SLG of .500 or better in more than 30% of its simulations on top of one of the games three- or four-best walk rates. PECOTA has the NL East as a dead heat, with the Braves and Mets projected for identical 92-70 records. How will the White Sox manage Kopechs starts to avoid the late-season fatigue that overtook the rotation last August and September? To calculate the playoff odds, FanGraphs takes every team's schedule and the projected performance of its players and simulates the season 20,000 times. That ought to keep his overall offense playing at a high level even as some of his physical skills decline, and if his skills dont decline sharply, there might even be some more late-career All-Star bids to be found in Abreus future. But now they're the biggest favorite of any division, projected to win the Central by a full 10 games over Minnesota (90 wins to 80). Dallas Keuchel (projection -0.1 WARP) is still brutal, and although Craig Kimbrel (3.02 ERA, 0.8 WARP) is likely still pretty good, Id rather not have the Sox be the team to find out. I wont expect Abreu to be hitting third or fourth on a pennant-bound team, but Ill believe in his descent to average when I see it. Its worth remembering that Vaughn missed a full season of minor league reps in 2020, so PECOTA has almost no professional history to go on outside of a bumpy rookie season. Don't take it too seriously. Ive got you on the highlights, though. If he manages to improve his command even a little bit and not routinely unravel with men on base, Cease will get Cy Young votes, and Im still of the opinion that hes one of the few pitchers in the game with Gerrit Cole-level upside in terms of stuff. [36] In 2006, PECOTA's preseason forecasts compared favorably to other forecasting systems (including Las Vegas betting line odds) in predicting the number of wins teams would earn during the season. Note: The PECOTA season projections on Baseball Prospectus have also been released, and PECOTA's similarities/differences to FanGraphs' projections are included. [31] Although PECOTA projections are made for well over 1000 hitters each season, the evaluation of the system included only slightly over 100 players who had a minimum of 500 major league AB and had also been included in projections by the other systems. 2005 5.14 wins; Gavin Sheets (.720 OPS, 12 HR, 8.4% BB, 19.9% K, 89 DRC+, 0.3 WARP)This time Ill start with the projection systems cant see adjustments caveat. Playoffs under these projected win totals: Just like FanGraphs playoff odds released earlier today, the odds of the season actually working out exactly like this are remote. The 2022 playoff projections are out on FanGraphs, and while some of the predictions will shock no one -- the Dodgers are the preseason World Series favorites -- there are also plenty of interesting projections, and some big surprises. His findings are counterintuitive to most fans. Heres to another year of the window. Last year, the race everyone was excited for was the Dodgers vs. the Padres in the NL West. Surely, this approach is more complicated than the standard method of applying an age adjustment based on the 'average' course of development of all players throughout history. Sign up to receive our daily Morning Lineup to stay in the know about the latest trending topics around Major League Baseball. 2007 4.31 wins. Production metrics such as batting average, isolated power, and unintentional walk rate for hitters, or strikeout rate and groundball rate for pitchers. [22] During 20082009, the Pittsburgh Pirates were in process of developing MITT ("Managing, Information, Tools and Talent"), a proprietary database that integrates scouting reports, medical and contract information, and performance statistics and projections. Age comes for us all, but barring a physical breakdown, theres little reason to believe Lynn wont once again be a model of reliability in 2022. Only the Dodgers, at 14.9%, have better championship odds than Toronto's 12%. Once a set of "comparables" is determined for each player, his future performance forecast is based on the historical performance of his "comparables". It's my baby, but it takes a village to run a PECOTA". PECOTA, an acronym for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm,[1] is a sabermetric system for forecasting Major League Baseball player performance. Notably, even those median outcomes presume a BABIP in the .300 range, which certainly isnt out of the question, given Tony La Russas antediluvian conception of shifting and infield defense. Liam Hendriks (Median Projection: 53 13 IP, 2.22 ERA, 13.22 K/9, 1.87 BB/9, 1.2 WARP)Not unlike Grandal, the numbers are all-in on another year of Hendriks as the clear-cut top reliever in the game, a stretch that arguably dates back to 2019. The World Series winner comes from the AL East or NL West half the time. Even so, Giolitos ERA still might be fated to live in the mid- to high-threes unless he can limit walks and home runs better than he did at times last summer. The 2007 version introduced adjustments for league effects, to account for differences in the competitive environment of the two major leagues. San Diego has vaulted back over San Francisco in the 2022 preseason projections, but the playoff odds see the NL West as a three-team race this year, not a two-team race. 3. [2] Baseball Prospectus (BP) has owned PECOTA since 2003; Silver managed PECOTA from 2003 to 2009. As is described in the Baseball Prospectus website's glossary:[10].
Even last year, they were projected to finish second behind the Twins. Like PECOTA, they may also adjust for the competitive difficulty of each of the two major leagues. Here are 10 eye-catching tidbits about the playoff odds for this season. As far as Kopech goes, theres no doubt whatsoever that the ability is there, its just a matter of whether hell be able to do it while trying to get through a lineup three times for 20+ starts.
If the BABIP trends back down in the direction of the .233 Bummer posted between 2019 and 2020, though, then the numbers say theres a good chance the Sox might have the best non-closing relief pitcher in the game even after dealing Craig Kimbrel.
All four teams won over 90 games. Andersons median outcome is based on a projected .340 BABIP; if he once again manages to go higher than that hes cleared .370 in four out of six MLB seasons were hopefully looking at a fourth straight year of a .300 batting average, 60+ extra base hits, and perhaps some more down-ballot MVP votes, particularly if he can hit the upper end of his home run projections and break 20 for the first time in his career. "Evaluating April MLB Predictions (2008)," VegasWatch.net, "Evaluating April MLB Predictions (2009),", Nate Silver, "Braves, Angels Have Most Heart,". This is where its good to note where cumulative stats dont tell the whole story. The Blue Jays are the World Series favorites out of the AL, and the White Sox are projected to win their division by the biggest margin, but it's the Astros who have the highest likelihood of clinching a bye to the Division Series (the byes go to the top two division winners in each league under the new playoff format). To be fair, Crochet wasnt healthy for much of the 2021 season, he never quite found his slider, and managed to pitch well for most of the season in spite of it.
As a result, it might very well be that PECOTA is underselling Sheets ability to get to his power. La Pantera is still going to be really good. The Yankees and Dodgers account for nearly a third of the World Series championships all on their own (31.6% between them). PECOTA forecasts a player's performance in all of the major categories used in typical fantasy baseball games; it also forecasts production in advanced sabermetric categories developed by Baseball Prospectus (e.g., VORP and EqA). Thats why in spite of his seemingly limitless potential, 27 other players have a higher 99th percentile projection (i.e., best-case scenario) in Prospectuss WAR metric. PECOTA quite likes the Angels.
The Red Sox's 83 projected wins put them behind the Angels (89), Twins (84) and Mariners (84). The next-most favorable schedules belong to the Dodgers (also .489), Astros (.492) and Padres (.493). Weve spent weeks in the lab to develop our new metric, WARsss and were debuting it for you! Conforto is not the only solid offensive free agent available, but the fit is strong and the need to add more firepower is urgent. Playoff odds of 90% mean the team makes the postseason in 18,000 of the 20,000 simulated seasons, World Series championship odds of 10% would mean the team wins in 2,000 of the 20,000 simulated seasons, and so on. A 94-win projection can easily turn into a 90-win season, and making sure there are better bats than Engel and Sheets in the starting lineup is what the White Sox need to firmly push them into the upper echelon of American League competitors. When it isn't, the program is designed to 'cheat' by expanding its tolerance for dissimilar players until a reasonable sample size is reached. I still think hes headed for a breakout 2022, but I might have underestimated the steepness of the adjustments Vaughn needs to make to get there. ", Nate Silver, "PECOTA 2004: A Look Back and a Look Ahead,", Nate Silver, "Why Was Kevin Maas a Bust? Usage metrics, including career length and plate appearances or innings pitched. [9], PECOTA relies on fitting a given player's past performance statistics to the performance of "comparable" Major League ballplayers by means of similarity scores. Will this be the Blue Jays' big year? But I remain skeptical that hell ever beat a high-threes ERA unless he also starts beating the walk and inning projections he has above. Instead of telling you that it's going to rain, we tell you that there's an 80% chance of rain, because 80% of the time that these atmospheric conditions have emerged on Tuesday, it has rained on Wednesday. [21] PECOTA also makes projections for many more players than do other systems, because PECOTA relies on adjusted minor league statistics as well as major league statistics and tries to make projections for all of the players on major league expanded rosters (40 players per team) as well as other prospects. But its still nerve-wracking. Michael Conforto (.803 OPS, 22 HR, 11.9% BB, 20.4% K, 115 DRC+, 2.8 WARP)The White Sox are one of nine teams who have six or more position players with median projections of league-average hitting or better. Second opinion: PECOTA agrees even more strongly. "We all do it. Like PECOTA, many of those systems also adjust the projections for aging, park effects and regression toward the mean. I don't expect we'll be good at all but 10 games worse than the Reds? The 2022 odds don't think they'll quite get there, but it could be close -- the Angels are the first team out, and they're projected to finish just behind the Red Sox for the last Wild Card spot (82 wins to Boston's 84).
Yasmani Grandal (Median Projection: .867 OPS, 22 HR, 20.0% BB, 22.2% K 131 DRC+, 5.2 WARP)If they havent already, its probably time Rick Hahn & friends begin entertaining (or clearing the budget for, if were being honest) the idea of a late-career extension for Grandal, who PECOTA views as the best catcher in baseball by a healthy margin. If either one misses 50+ games, we're done. In short, the White Sox are in no position to lose out on this kind of depth, particularly if they have the incumbent advantage in signing him. The system greatly resembles the forecasting of hurricane paths: players can go in many directions, so preparing for just one is foolish". Notwithstanding predictions made during the Bush administration with a now-antiquated formula, how many of these preseason estimates were that unfair, in retrospect? Just look at last year's PECOTA standings released 2/9/21 compared with reality. Digging into PECOTAs 2022 White Sox projections. A comparison found that PECOTA had outperformed several other forecasting systems for the 2006 season in predicting OPS. His fastball is good enough but lacks overpowering velocity, and suffered slightly for spin and movement without sticky stuff. 2006 4.94 wins; It performed nearly as well as the best of the other systems in predicting ERA. The Blue Jays, Yankees, Rays or Red Sox win the 2022 World Series in 28.7% of the simulated seasons, while the Dodgers, Padres or Giants win in 22.2% of them. Like that would be totally crazy and unprecedented, We're out of 0.0% land. Hitting spots with the fastball is the crux of avoiding hard contact while also setting up the changeup and slider, and thats just easier said than done when youre 66 with fairly complex mechanics. However, it is also leaps and bounds more representative of reality, and more accurate to boot.[16]. Hes slated for a DRC+ of 100 or better in roughly 90% of the systems projections, which combines with above-average defense (that the eye test and other metrics say is probably undersold by BPs Fielding Runs Above Average) to produce a player thats more likely than not to challenge for an All-Star bid. The American League wins for the ninth year in a row! [28] In 2012, PECOTA substantially changed the way it weighted past years' performance in establishing the baseline for projections. In addition, PECOTA forecasts several summary diagnostics such as breakout rates, improve rates, and attrition rates, as well as the market values of the players. But if a repeat of that 2.82 ERA is as unlikely as PECOTA seems to think it is, it may be worth taking a 20% chance he becomes a solid MLB starter over a 70% chance that hes a working mans Matt Thornton. PECOTA considers four broad categories of attributes in determining a player's comparability: 1. For example, drawing on the insights coming out of the use of defense-independent pitching statistics, PECOTA forecasts a pitcher's future performance in a given area by using information about his past performance in other areas. 611 overall), Another big hurler, this one playing his way onto the board with an outstanding summer league run, White Sox select RHSP/SS Nick Altermatt in 17th round (No. [13] As baseball analyst and journalist Alan Schwarz writes, "Silver designed a sophisticated variance algorithm that has examined every big-league pitcher's statistics since 1946 to determine which numbers best forecast effectiveness, specifically earned run average. [38] In 2009, however, PECOTA lagged behind all the well-known forecasters. [18] In this way, PECOTA is able to make projections for more than 1,600 players each year, including many players with little or no prior major league experience. Nonetheless, Vaughns lack of defensive and base-running skill makes it worrisome that the system has him hitting 10% better than league average less than a third of the time, and also sees exceeding his 2021 home run and slugging totals as a virtual toss-up. All thats left to do is wait and see when it starts and when it ends. The AL East has all three Wild Card teams. Barring injury or a velocity drop is a loaded statement for pitchers, especially back-end flamethrowers, so it should all be taken with a healthy grain of salt. There will also be days where he doesnt have it and gets tagged for six runs. The number of runs a team will score and allow during the coming season is estimated based on the playing times and PECOTA's predicted individual performance of each player, using a "Marginal Lineup Value" algorithm created by David Tate and further developed by Keith Woolner. If Vaughn makes enough contact to maintain the plate discipline profile projected above, hell also probably do better than the power numbers projected above. If theres any argument to be had over Grandals performance relative to his contract, you should probably find someone else to argue with this year. PECOTA also relies a lot on the use of peripheral statistics to forecast a given player's future performance.
'When you try to predict future E.R.A. It wont take too much extra thought in terms of game management to limit the bad enough to beat this projection, even if he still falls short of ace-caliber.
For example, a 26-year-old's forecast performance in the coming season will be based on how the most comparable Major League 26-year-olds performed in their subsequent season. Lets hope this edition of Nate Silvers creation is more accurate than just about everything else thats escaped from his brain since 2016. its hard not to think the White Sox wouldnt be best served trying to recoup some starting pitching depth by stretching their southpaw out in the minor leagues. [27] In 2009, Baseball Prospectus introduced in-season PECOTA projections, to update and supplement its beginning of the season projections. Nate Silver's own comparison of the performance of alternative projection systems for hitters in 2007 also showed that PECOTA led the field, though a couple of others were close. Surely the Giants wont outperform this by say 20.9 games right? Given his reputation as an incredibly smart and dedicated hitter, we can probably peg Abreus odds at making a Paul Konerko-esque mid-30s reinvention compensating for a loss in bat speed with improved pitch recognition and a more contact-oriented approach as quite a bit higher than your standard slugging first baseman on the wrong side of the player aging curve. The playoff odds like them to be the American League's representative in the World Series. One of several widely publicized statistical systems of forecasts of player performance, PECOTA player forecasts are marketed by BP as a fantasy baseball product. PECOTA actually thinks they'll be the second Wild Card team, with 89 wins, just behind Toronto and ahead of the Rays. Here's How", http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=136, BaseballProspectus.com, November 29, 2007, http://lanaheimangelfan.blogspot.com/2006/12/pecota.html, BaseballProspectus.com, February 19, 2009, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=PECOTA&oldid=1018517357, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License 3.0, Nate Silver, "The Science of Forecasting,", Nate Silver, "PECOTA Takes on the Field: How'd It Fare Against Six Other Projections Systems? His median outcomes are already among the best in baseball among relievers, making him one of 15 pitchers projected to approach 1.0 WARP without starting a game. Depth in the high minors consists of Jimmy Lambert, Jonathan Stiever, and whoever this years crop of Mike Wrights are. The problem is that as a slow, defensively-limited corner bat, the offensive bar for being more than an average player is really high, and Sheets has yet to prove that he can do anything against left-handed pitching at the big-league level. In March 2009, Silver announced that PECOTA's extremely complex and laborious set of database manipulations and calculations would be moving to a different platform. 2005: 80-822006: 82-802007: 73-892008: 77-852009: 73-892010: 79-832011: 82-802012: 78-842013: 77-852014: 75-872015: 78-842016: 82-802017: 76-862018: 72-902019: 74-882020: 31-292021: 83-792022: 94-68. [11] Furthermore, Silver describes the following distinct feature: The PECOTA similarity scores are based primarily on looking at a three-year window of a pitchers performance. They will sometimes appear to exceed it in any given season, and other times fall short, because of the sample size problems that we described earlier. With his line drive-oriented, all-fields, switch-hitting approach, we probably shouldnt expect a return to the 30-homer pace of 2019, but if Moncada is attacking the ball well enough to get back into the 20-25 range, Id wager theres a good chance he beats his median batting average projection and once again finds himself on the fringes of the MVP discussion. They could also have the clearest roads to the postseason, facing the easiest schedules of any teams in baseball.
The Astros are the likeliest AL team to clinch a bye. Illustrative PECOTA estimates and "cards" are available for inspection by nonsubscribers here: Kevin Pelton, "Introducing SCHOENE: Our NBA Projection System,", Gary Huckabay, "643: Reasonable Person Standard,", Rich Lederer, "An Unfiltered Interview with Nate Silver,", This difference is explained and illustrated in Nate Silver, "Introducing PECOTA,", Alan Schwarz, "Predicting Futures in Baseball, and the Downside of Damon,", Nate Silver, "Baseball Prospectus Basics: The Science of Forecasting,", William Hageman, "Baseball By the Numbers,", See Clay Davenport, "DT's vs. MLEs A Validation Study,", See, for example, Clay Davenport, "Depth Charts,". Its hard for me to envision a scenario in which Cease sees his walks and strikeouts backslide from last season (when his BB and K/9 were 3.7 and 12.5, respectively) and still manages to allow fewer runs. His changeup and slider are good enough on their own that hes probably going to rack up strikeouts and innings in any case, which is plenty valuable independent of anything else. Tim Anderson (.752 OPS, 17 HR, 4.7% BB, 22.2% K, 98 DRC+, 2.4 WARP)Theres little to say about the teams heartbeat that we dont know already: Andersons lack of patience and singles and doubles-based approach makes his All-Star level production of recent years precarious, but this MO also has the effect of zagging where the rest of the league is zigging, and like most of you, Im going to bet on Anderson beating the projections all the way up until he doesnt. If anything, PECOTA was very generous to the rebuilding White Sox. Most of the other popular forecasting systems do not use a "comparable players" approach. [37] An independent evaluation by the website Vegas Watch showed that PECOTA had the lowest error in predicting Major League team wins in 2008 of all the best known forecasts, both those that were sabermetrically based and those that relied on individual expertise. Second opinion: The Astros are actually projected for one fewer win (90) than the White Sox in PECOTA's simulations, and with PECOTA seeing the Angels as stronger than FanGraphs, Houston is slightly less likely to make the Division Series than Chicago.
Beginning in Spring 2009, BP assumed responsibility for producing the annual forecasts, making 2010 the first baseball season for which Silver played no role in producing PECOTA projections.[3]. Moreover, the comparable players may not always perform in accordance with their true level of ability. In all likelihood, hell have extended stretches where he does spot the fastball and puts up All-Star numbers. [26] It also took account of baserunning. It's because the NL West has the overall favorite, the Dodgers, and the AL East has four teams with significant championship odds. The most interesting part of Moncadas projection? All that being said, a projection system is never going to be able to anticipate a smart players proactive adjustments. The Reds with the same amount of wins as the Cardinals? Second opinion: The Easts are the only divisions to feature multiple 90-win teams under PECOTA's projections (the Yankees and Blue Jays in the AL, the Mets and Braves in the NL), but the Red Sox and Phillies fall further behind than they do in FanGraphs' simulations. Meanwhile, every single team in both East divisions has a strength of schedule of .500 or better. The system doesnt particularly like the deal given to Kendall Graveman (0.3 WARP), but interestingly, it believes Matt Foster (104 DRA-) might be deserving of another shot at a bullpen role. Chicago's opponents have a projected winning percentage of .488, and the Brewers' opponents are projected at .489. Silver conjectures that the improvement has come in part from taking defense into account in the forecasts beginning in 2005. [4] PECOTA also inspired some analogous projection systems for other professional sports: KUBIAK for the National Football League, SCHOENE[5] and CARMELO[6] for the National Basketball Association, and VUKOTA[7] for the National Hockey League. A starter, however, he still is. For reference, the AL's projected top team entering the season was the Yankees in 2021, Astros in 2020, Yankees in 2019, Astros in 2018, Cleveland in 2017 and Red Sox in 2016. Both teams have made big moves this offseason, with the Braves trading for Matt Olson and the Mets signing Max Scherzer and more. This is actually the second year in a row that's been the case. 521 overall), Yeah, just your standard-issue, two-way ace/masher from up there in Minnesota. The 2009 preseason forecasts were the last ones for which Silver took primary responsibility. The White Sox and Brewers are predicted to win the AL Central and NL Central, respectively. L.A. would win the division at that total, with the Padres and Giants the second and third Wild Card teams behind the Mets, just ahead of the Cardinals and Phillies. That's 50.9% in total.
